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Tuesday, January 17, 2006

Europe Has More To Fear From A Nuclear Iran

From The Officers Club:
The EU’s playbook is that of liberalism, internationalism, and multilateralism. That works fine when there is an American armored division waiting around for somebody to get out of line- but when America disengages substantially from EURCOM, who will defend Europe? Not the Europeans. The EU QRF (Quick Reaction Force) has yet to materialize- and why should it? NATO will take care of any serious security matter as it did with Kosovo and Bosnia. But without substantial US participation, you get Charlie Foxtrots like Haiti, Rwanda, and Sudan.

If war comes to the EU, it will not be akin to anything we’ve seen so far. It will come in the form of an intifada, supported by long-range Iranian missiles. It will start on streets and in communities centered around extremist mosques, and spread from there. As in France, it will be cast by the media as a “protest” by “disaffected youths,” but it will resemble a revolution on the ground. If a EU crackdown is attempted, Iran will (credibly) threaten to lob a couple nukes at some target of national interest. The EU cannot credibly respond to such a threat- they lack the capacity.
And as the Euros hem and haw about taking substantive action against Iran, I think we need to be very clear with them that they cannot count on American bailing them out a fourth time. We won't risk Pittsburgh for Paris, or Atlanta for Amsterdam.

[HT: Vodkapundit]
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